Thanks to diligent research on the part of your correspondent, I have now found the reason why the Iraqis has been incapable of mounting an effective defense to Allied air power. It turns out that their air defense systems are based on an obsolete design from the early 1980's:

Not only that, but our sources(which are as good as any used by Debka) have found out why the tanks of the Republican Guard are so unwilling to use their night scopes:

Note how instead of using modern raster or polygon-fill technology, the Iraqis are forced to rely on quite dated vector graphics. Sure, this technology is fine if you are tackling some flying saucer, or other vector-graphic tanks, but against the thermal imaging sights of the M1A2, it is simply not up to the task. Not only that, but they only get a new tank every 15 kills, and no Iraqi tank is ever going to manage to get that record.
After seeing these examples of Iraqi technology in action, I am quit certain that we will defeat our foes completely.
Finally, Palm Beach has done something to redeem itself. After listening to former Costa Rican President Oscar Arias spew anti-American bile about the war, 2/3rds of the audience, walked out:
First a trickle, then a stream of about 150 guests left the room as Arias spoke, Ford said. Arias' remarks then triggered an impromptu protest outside the banquet hall."People assembled outside and sang God Bless America," Ford said.
Although the swell of voices could be heard inside the dining room, Arias continued. He finally stopped at the behest of John Flynn, chief executive officer of South Florida Blood Banks, Ford said.
Jeff Jarvis posted a vlog yesterday. In it, he discusses how he doesn't like being pro-war. He mentions how this is difficult for him, and frankly, I'm not all that sympathetic to his point of view.
First of all, he makes the throwaway statement about how George W. Bush failed to make the case:
In fact, I think that George Bush did a terrible job making the case for this war -- to us and to the world.
Later, Jeff discusses his discomfort at being a hawk:
And I've decided that as with Idi Amin, Pol Pot, Slobodan Milosevic, and Adolf Hitler, we bear a responsibility to defeat tyranny and to free its prisoners.
But do not think that I come to this decision with glee. I am torn apart about resorting to sin to fight sin. I miss the apparent moral clarity of my former anti-war confreres. I dislike the moral smugness of my new pro-war confederates.
Secondly, The pro-war side has the right to be smug. They asked the difficult question, and have gotten it right(so far). They weighed the difficult question of war vs. peace, the costs of both, and the resulting aftereffects. The anti-war crowd never even bothered to pose the question. Those members of the anti-war crowd who were hawks in Afghanistan were hawks mainly for purposes of revenge. They did not see the war as one step in a chain to eliminate the threat of terrorism root and branch, but simply as a means to get those who got us. The hawks saw Afghanistan as simply one step on the path to eliminate Islamokaze terrorism completely. They developed a plan to change the face of the middle east, to eliminate the threat of Islamic terrorism once and for all, and to eliminate the threat of WMD on the United States. Any failures would be theirs, and Jeff would not be talking about them being smug if they were failing. Jeff is only complaining about their smugness because they have been right so far, in the face of heated ideological opposition to their position. They earned the right to be smug.
OK, I've put up a few more blogs that I've ignored and shouldn't have, and did some address changes on some others. After this post goes up, you'll start seeing the changes.
I've received two emails recently, one of which I responded to directly, the other I am going to respond to here. The first was from the wife of a Marine who is now somewhere in Iraq. She wanted to know if I had seen what unit Fox's Rick Leventhal was with, and if it was the same unit as her husband. I responded with what I knew(which admittedly, isn't much), and told her that we were pulling for her husband and his buddies, because they are fighting over there to keep us safe here. I'm much better at criticism than I am at expressing support, so I hope I got my point across okay.
The other letter was different. It was from a literary agent who wanted to know if I knew some way to contact Salam Pax. Here is my response:
No. I don't know any other method to contact Salam Pax. I don't email him, and I don't won't to jeopardize him by emailing him directly. I am certainly not going to engage in an activity that may be potentially life threatening for the sole purpose of you getting a plum contact to write a book. You might be shocked at this, but he is right now in the middle of a war zone, and frankly, I think his survival ranks a bit higher than you getting a prospective "best selling author". Your contact was slimy, your timing is abysmal, and frankly, you should at least think about the consequences of your actions.
OK, this is an absolutely true story, and has absolutely nothing to do with the war, and if my mother finds out about this story, she'll go ballistic. It is still pretty hilarious, though.
One of the earliest memories of my birthday was in kindergarten. My kindergarten teacher was making little construction paper birthday cakes with our birthdate on them. We each had our own little construction paper birthday cake, with construction paper candles, and on each cake was our birthday. She showed each one to the class.
"Class, this is Kenny's birthday cake. Kenny, your birthday is December 10th, right?" The teacher was really dedicated, and had written each birthday on the cake ahead of time. "Yes Teacher, December 10th." "Ok, here is your special birthday cake."
"Jenny, your birthday is May 12th."
"Yes, Miss Crabapple".(I've forgotten her name lo these many years)
"Jimmy, your birthday is September 18th."
"Yes, Miss Crabapple."
Then she came to me.
"John, here's your cake, with your birthday, March 24th." That wasn't right, so I corrected her."No Miss Crabapple. My birthday isn't March 24th. It's March 22nd." Miss Crabapple looked at her exquisitely crafted birthday cake, and realized she was going to have to do some surgery on it, and took out her magic marker and adjusted it accordingly. Obviously, everyone knows their own birthday.
My childhood continued, with the three days I looked forward to every year. Christmas, which came every December 25th, Easter, which came sometime in mid Spring, and my birthday, which, like clockwork, was every March 22nd. Oh, occasionally we'd celebrate it on a different day, March 21st or March 23rd, or even March 24th, to coincide with a weekend. It was cool when my parents would celebrate my birthday on a weekend, because then they'd invite the odd aunt or uncle, and I'd get more nifty toys(and occasionally clothes--yuk!). Weekday birthdays were nowhere near as cool. They were still better than any ordinary day, but instead of having a whole blissful day of birthday greed, I'd have to go to school, deal with school stuff, and then have to do homework! And on my birthday, March 22nd!
But the years pass, and the time for toys passes as well, and you become an adult. For an Irish Catholic like myself, that means being confirmed, getting an extra SuperDuper Catholic name, and meeting the Bishop. It means you are a man in a Catholic way, which means that you are still too young to drink beer and still too young to drive a car. I guess it means that if you commit some mortal sin, you don't go to nice mild Juvie purgatory, it's straight to hard core H-E-double-hockey-sticks.
A big part of confirmation is that the Diocese needs to make certain you've been baptized. These means that they need your baptismal certificate, which is an official Church document that says you're part of the flock, and free from original sin and all that. We were to give the baptismal certificate to the parish the week before the confirmation, during the rehearsal for the confirmation ceremony. Curious, I asked my mom if I could take a look at the baptismal certificate.
"Why do you want to look at the certificate?" she asked.
"I'm curious," I replied.
"You're going to lose it," she said.
"I won't lose it."
"Yes you will, then we'll have to put your confirmation off a year."
"C'mon, I won't lose it. Let me see it." Of course, with my track record, I just might lose it.
"Listen, just let me hold it for you."
"Why won't you let me look at it?
"Ok, HERE! Look at it if you want."
So, I look at the baptismal certificate for about a minute. It has the usual stuff, the name of the church, birthdate, etc. I didn't really look at it all that much. It was printed on that really nice paper that you pay three zillion dollars for at Staples and use only for sending resumes. In any event, my mother was really anxious I would lose it, and was bothering me to give it back, so I did.
I had my confirmation, and all was well.
A year or two went by after that, with a couple of birthdays, on March 22nd, as it had always been, and now birthdays were going to count in a real, legally binding way. I was now fifteen. The next birthday would be a big one. I would be eligible for a learner's permit, and then I would be driving, the Nirvana of teenage life. And driving meant I would be instantly cool, and I would get to park my mom's station wagon in the student parking lot, and I would drive all my friends every, and I would cool. Maybe not as cool as Hardcastle and McCormick, but maybe, if I was lucky, my friends would think of my mom's powder blue 1975 Chevy Impala wagon--my town's own version of the A-Team van. Luckily, I became a teenager before Wesley Crusher sucked all coolness out of planet earth.
The year went by from age fifteen to age sixteen. March became April, warming up into June, July, August, and I started to get the disease all soon, the driver's license hardon. Sure, I could drive the boat any time I wanted, but I'd been able to do that for a year and a half. Anyway, September came, then October.
October came, and my mother was sitting in the kitchen with a very grim look on her face. "Uh oh," I thought, "She must know that I blew off my homework again."
"John," she said, still wearing the You've-been-caught scowl, "sit down."
"John."Uh-oh.
"Yes, Mom?"
"I have something to tell you, and it's kind of important."See Mom, I just forgot about that paper.
"Ok."
"I don't how you'll take it."
"Ok." Hmm. Maybe this isn't about homework.
"Um, it's about your birthday." Birthday?
"Ohhkay."
"Um, your birthday isn't March 22nd. It's March 24th"
"And?" OK, what is the other shoe?
"And that's it."
"That's it?!? That's all?!? I thought this was something important! I thought I was in trouble! So my birthday is on March 24th. Big deal. We got any soda?"
My mother was really relieved on hearing that. So, from that day forth, I was no longer born on March 22nd. I was born on March 24th. I had to wait an extra two days before I could drive that cool Powder Blue 1975 Chevy Impala with AM radio, and from that day forward, I had two birthdays, the one I used to have, and the one I have presently.
And I never did get around to apologizing to my kindergarten teacher.
Yes, I haven't blogged anywhere near as much as I did in the first 24 hours of the war. I found that I was krazy-glued to the TV in the first 48-72 hours of the war. I also found that the war had an actual physical effect on me, similar to the effects of the Atrocity.
On September 11, and for about a week afterwards, I felt the need to run away, to hide, to fight, to do something. The problem was there wasn't much I could do--at least nothing that could eliminate the fight or flight response entirely. I could donate money, my time, work out, go out on the boat for a swim, but nothing could get rid of that feeling of excess adrenaline. It just kept getting produced, more and more, and only time really eliminated it.
I had the same feeling for the first few days of this war. I felt a surge of adrenaline, just as I did lo those 18 months ago. It was a little different this time though. I felt the need to go, run, do something, but it had a different character. I didn't feel a life-or-death pain to it. The tension was there, but I didn't feel the same way. If I had to describe the feeling, the closest comparison I can think of is the sort of rapid adrenaline rush my dog would get into at hearing the word "CAR" or "WALK". It was like my body wanted something to happen, but it didn't know what. I got giddy along with Peter Arnett during "Shock and Awe". I can't really explain it beyond that, and it was also something I really didn't expect. I don't know if I like that, or not. It was just something that happened, and frankly, it didn't happen to me during the first Gulf War, and I find it rather odd that it is happening to me now. Maybe it's an afteraffect of the Atrocity.
Thankfully, the feeling is gone now. and a bit of normalcy has returned.I watched some of the NCAA tourney today, some golf, and made fun of that treasonous piece of shit Michael Moore.
Tim Blair wants the rest of us to do some photoshopping. Ask, and ye shall receive:

I just realized a way to tell where and how far the explosions are from the camera. If you see a bright flash, that will be a bomb/cruise missile hit. You can tell how far it is by the same technique as determining the distance of lightning. Watch the flash, and count one-one-thousand, two-one-thousand. 1100 feet per count, and that will give you the distance from the camera.
Their embedded reporters are covering from the front. Rick Leventhal is giving audio reports from a Marine Recon unit, and Greg Kelly is giving live video of M109s shelling Iraqi positions. The other networks are doing the ansi standard retired general thing, the same talking heads, etc. Fox is going to make its mark in "hard news" with this war.
Peter Jennings was interviewing a former commander of Nato(I forget his name), and he said "I think we've lost the initiative." In a campaign involving 300,000 troops, and thousands of combat aircraft, one hard landing by a chopper means that we've lost the initiative. When I see Iraqi soldiers marching on Kuwait, then we've lost initiative. An isolated missile strike or a downed helicopter doesn't qualify.
Two divisions are prepared to surrender. The 11th infantry and 51st mechanized, 20,000 soldiers.
No good cliches here at all. The mother of all rambling inanity. "Pull Trigger, keep the fire on"? Geez.
Starts his speech, then dead air.
Update: Back on the air. "Criminal act...those who help him, Shameful crimes, Those who care...sacrifice, "yada yada yada. I guess the bombers missed him. Oh well. We'll get him soon enough.
Arabic nation, yada yada yada. Great leader Saddam. Against those evil tyrants in America. Dear Citiizens, great leader, yada yada yada. They're playing some sort of anthem--you probably know that. LOL. Brian Williams called it Monty Pythonesque.
In such a short time. The Malvo story is nothing compared to this. If Glenn Reynolds ever does crystal meth, this is what his page will look like.
I think the Army tipped Fox News off about an impending raid. I couldn't understand why he was there, but now the raid is going on. Geraldo is reporting that the Taliban is going to try to use the Iraq war as cover to launch an attack on Afghanistan. They got intel from radio transmissions from caves above the village.
Iraqi TV is showing color bars. Shepard Smith says this is the first time they've done that since they've been monitoring the channel.
Five members of Saddam's Toadies the Iraqi leadership killed. Saddam is supposed to talk on Iraqi TV. 1000+ troops SE of Kandahar on raid. Geraldo is wearing that goofy hat again.
Fox news is reporting that there is a raid in Afghanistan going on with 1000 troops. AP has a similar report. I think GWB is sending a message to Kim Jong Il. The message: "All right, who wants some? You? You?"
I think we have some human intelligence at a relatively high level in Iraq. The attack looks like a one-off before the main event.
via Salam Pax
Unrelated speculation: Expect Blogger to have Salam on the wimpiest server that they've got.
It is now superfluous. The Hate America firsters have lost, so now I'm freeing up a little bit of bandwidth.
Saddam or his immediate family. I doubt they would have launched an isolated raid otherwise.
to see if Dan Rather is going to spit out similes like Davey Crocket at a Coonskin Cap convention. OK. That sucked.
I wonder if the troops in Kuwait are advancing on Basra. I guess I'll find out soon if I've got egg on my face re: Turkey.
I didn't expect them to attack at dawn. This has to have been directed at top leadership.(I know, I already said that).
I'm late to the party. It looks like an isolated strike at a "target of opportunity"(CNN). A guess is that this was directed at top leadership--Saddam, Odai, Qusay, etc.
Now this is the sort of action I can get behind. In my local paper, the News-Times, reports today that a group of students at Newtown High School in Newtown, CT have been suspended for burning a flag, for which they were suspended. Of course, all of you out there are saying to yourselves, "What a bunch of spoiled brats! Don't they know how many have died for their freedom?" However, this flag burning has a twist. They burned a French Flag. The drama club's adviser had a problem with the burning:
McChord said drama club adviser Tom Swetts helped the students take down the signal flag prop, but stayed inside during the burning. He said after students returned to the auditorium, Swetts said something like, "You shouldn’t have burned the flag. I didn’t have my camera.”
Drudge is linking to an AP story saying that Turkey is now allowing US troops to deploy. All the other warbloggers will find this a shock, but, as I've said before, over and over again the entire Turkish flap was almost entirely a disinformation campaign. The 4th ID is there, it is now in position, and will be moving into Free Iraq by tomorrow morning, enroute to Kirkuk, Tikrit, and points south.
Update: Here's a more detailed link.
Update:MSNBC is reporting as well
When asked when parliament would resubmit a new resolution, presidential spokesman Tacan Ildem said: “Our government will make the necessary evaluation urgently.”“A unanimous decision was reached ... that there is a need to move urgently,” he added.
"It's real demoralizing for the inspectors, after waiting four years to get into Iraq, they now have to come back out."
Awwwww!
Jeff Jarvis clues me in to a blog being done by CNN correspondent Kevin Sites from the front in Northern Iraq. I've put it in the blogroll. I hate to pat myself on the back again(Really! I do!), but the new improved blogroll is much cooler than blogrolling. Anyway, you should see it shortly.
Update:Oops! Put the link in the wrong field. It's fixed now.
It looks like he is going to blame France. Yep, he just did. He is mentioning GWB's speech tonight. GWB is going to call for Saddam to leave the country.
I don't think there will be a war today. The President is going to speak at 8pm tonight. If there was going to be a war, they wouldn't announce ahead of time the speech. I think GWB is going to issue a "leave or die" demand on Saddam Hussein tonight. Thirty Six hours, maybe less. I think this is also an attempt to get Iraqis to launch mass demonstrations against Saddam. Salam is reporting that pictures of Saddam are being defaced in two provinces in Iraq. GWB probably figures that by openly calling for an uprising, that even if it isn't successful in killing Saddam in the first hours, it will pave the way for the Army to march on Baghdad with minimal opposition, which means less dead Americans and less dead Iraqis. IMHO, a good thing.
"Further Material Breach" "Explicit Veto Threat"
Another slap at France. They are isolating France big time.
He's slamming France badly. He is accusing France of protecting Saddam, and has flatly declared that the co-sponsors of the proposed the resolution, aka, the Axis of Stand-up Guys, will take action on their own to secure Iraqi disarmament. I have to say that the British do righteous indignation a lot better than we do.
Cato finds this report in Morningstar about how the UN is being shut out of reconstruction efforts in postwar Iraq.
The Bush plan, as detailed in more than 100 pages of confidential contract documents, would sideline United Nations development agencies and other multilateral organizations that have long directed reconstruction efforts in places such as Afghanistan and Kosovo. The plan also would leave big nongovernmental organizations largely in the lurch: With more than $1.5 billion in Iraq work being offered to private U.S. companies under the plan, just $50 million is so far earmarked for a small number of groups such as CARE and Save the Children.
As Cato suggests, this is bad for the Axis of Weasels. However, it is even worse for the UN. All the punditocracy have remarked as to how we would need the UN to help rebuild Iraq, and how the US would have to crawl to the UN to rebuild the country. The rebuilding program that is being suggested gives the lie to that notion. The UN is going to be shunted aside as ineffective. This may hurt the UN more than the UNSC dithering. If GWB's plan for Iraqi reconstruction works, then the UN will be irrelevant in every respect. It will be shown that they can't guarantee security, they can't ensure peace, and they can't even do a good job in reconstruction. This will put Kofi Annan and dozens of useless UN bureaucrats out of a job. IMHO, a good thing.
Hans Blix still doesn't have a clue. Today, the Scare Quotes Sentinel is reporting that Hans Blix is willing to use his inspectors as human shields:
Asked by the paper if he thought there would be war, Blix said: "Yes, just now it does not look like there is very much hope. But I do not have the right to give up, and neither do I want to do that. We will in any case continue and try (to work) until the last minute."Asked how long the weapons inspectors would stay in Iraq, Blix said: "We will stay there as long as we dare. If we leave that is a sign that this is over, so that is why we don't want to leave before all hope has gone."
Update:Fox news is repeating a Reuters report that Blix has gotten some sense, and has ordered the Inspector Clouseau brigade out in 24 hours.
I'm going to be adding some Australasian blogs to the blogroll. With the war probably at most 72 hours off, I want to be able to hook into enough offshore blogs that I'll have continuously updated XML links to items on a 24 hour basis. I can't stay awake, but somewhere, right now, someone is posting something really cool to their blog. So far I've found one, but I'm looking for suggestions, esp. if they use XML syndication.
The UN is pulling their inspectors from the Kuwait-Iraq DMZ.
Update: Here is a story from the AP.
Andrea Harris finds an article on how to perform a De-Frenching, though they go to wayyyy too much trouble. I find I can do a good de-Frenching just by increasing my intake of dietary fiber. Of course, there is always the possibility of stepping in some dog-french when the neighbors don't curb their dog.
UN resolution to eject the United States from the United Nations
So the world is before a choice: to cower and give in to the USA and let things proceed as they have in the past -- with much greater potential of degeneration as the US becomes even much more dominant, or the world can very simply and calmly reply to the US ultimatum with one of its own: If you will not respect the UN decisions and will, then get out of the UN or we will kick you out. This message should be acted on Monday, even if only symbolically as a quick start, toward achieving this goal.
Oh no! The horror! Oh, what will we Americans do without 9 zillion diplomats double parking in our largest city?
I know I'm blowing my horn yet again, but this new improved blogroll is da bomb! OK, I'm patting myself on the back. I don't care. The SQL is ugly, I had to use a kludge with MT-List to make it work, but it is still one hundred thousand gajillion times better than blogrolling.com, and it doesn't take nine years to load a page.
Here is my wild-ass speculation for when the war starts: The 4th Infantry Division will magically teleport itself off of those ships stuck in the Mediterranean Sea and appear somewhere near Tikrit. Remember, you heard it here first.
Nelson Ascher, of Amiland and Europundits writes a good article about what the French are really after. It's not us. They are trying to split Britain from the rest of Europe. However, Chiraq expected the rest of the continent to follow his lead. When Eastern Europe told him where he could go, he was shocked, his plan had been partially thwarted, and told them to shut up if the