No Replacement For Displacement

Knights were overrated

I read Glenn Reynolds' response to Jim Henley's post about what WMD, surveillance, and high quality military bode for the future, and I've got a major nit to pick about their view of medieval cavalry being the king of the battlefield. It wasn't. No cavalry charge ever broke a line of infantry that maintained ranks, either before or after the invention of the stirrup. Cavalry could run down other cavalry, or decimate a retreating enemy, but to attack infantry directly on the field of battle would have been suicide for any cavalry of any age. Cavalry protected own's own army as it retreated, and hunted down enemy survivors as they retreated, but it never was able to cause infantry to break and run.

John Bono's Poker Primer

I gave my brother and my father the entry fee for a poker tournament for Christmas. I was shocked that even though they were going to play poker for free, and they've both played poker in home games, they both were very intimidated by the prospect of playing poker in a casino, and wouldn't play unless I taught them how to play. So I am going to spend New Year's eve night giving them a poker lesson(no, not that kind of poker lesson). I'm not a great player, nor am I a real rube. For a regular player, I am about average. However, that does make me a better player than those who play for the first time. So take my advice for what it is worth.

Don't be intimidated by the game. If you take care to learn the basics of the game, you have a decent chance of winning at low limits. Unlike all the other games in the casino, there is no built in edge for the house, because there is no house, you play against other players. Playing a $1-$3 no ante 7 card stud(7CS) game or a $2 & $4 Texas hold-em game is not going to empty your bankroll unless you are wildly careless or drunk. So relax. If you don't want to play in a cash game, play in a tournament instead. Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun have tournaments every weekend that have low entry fees, and it is quite possible to play for an afternoon on only $35. That's less than the price of a round of golf.

Don't play fancy games. Don't play games like 7card stud hi-lo, Omaha hi-lo, and other oddball games. If you are comfortable playing 7 card stud, play it, otherwise, you are better off playing Texas Hold'Em. Unlike 7CS, There is less need to track each player's hand in hold'em, to make certain that your draws are valid or not. On the East Coast, 7CS is more popular. YMMV.

Play less hands. You heard that right. Play less hands. Just because you see everyone else jumping into every hand that is dealt doesn't mean you should. The number one mistake people make in poker is playing too many hands, then becoming attached to those hands, and losing money hand over fist playing junk. There is a scene in the movie Rounders(the best poker movie ever, IMO), where you learn how good the main character is because he folds a hand. Learn from that scene. Stick with face cards, medium to high pairs(7s or better), High connectors(KQ, QJ) or Suited connectors(JQhearts or KQspades). Basically, if you are in doubt whether your hand is good, throw it away. Good players are in less hands, but they win with what they play with.

Pay attention to your position relative to the dealer. If you immediately to the right of the dealer, you should be prepared that if you bet, there is a real possibility of being raised by someone else. As a result, you should be much more discriminating about what hands you play when you are first to act as opposed to when you are last to act.

Pay attention to the odds. When drawing on hand(waiting for cards to improve your hand), pay attention to the odds of you actually getting the hand. For example, if after the flop in a Texas Hold'em game, you have a four heart flush, the odds are about 4-1 against you making your flush on the next card. If your bet will pay off at better than 4-1 call(or even raise if you think you'll get enough callers and your draw will be strong enough). If it is less than 4-1, fold. Similarly, to convert trips to a full house or better, the odds are 5-1 on the sixth card, and slightly less than 4-1 on the 7th card.

Don't draw dead. "Drawing dead" is when you are drawing on a hand, like a straight or a flush, and the cards on the table suggest that a full house is a possibility, such as KKQQ on the board in holdem, any player holding three of a kind(trips) on the fifth card(5th street) of a 7CS game. Under those circumstances, a straight or flush is going to be worthless, and you will have paid a lot of money to get a worthless hand. Pay special attention if you have a flush in Hold'em. It is routine for two players to have a flush.

Check Raising. The act of check-raising(not betting on the first round of betting, then raising after a subsequent player bets) is an very aggressive play. If you are drawing for a straight or flush, and want to get away without having to bet on the 6th card, a check raise is a good way to scare off a later, more expensive bet. Be warned, though, that a good player may come "over the top" and raise you back. Then you have to make the decision as to whether or not it is worth it to call the raise when you may be up against someone who may raise Also, check-raising when you have a very strong hand is also a way to trap some money in the pot. However, I would not recommend doing that unless there are some aggressive players in the game to begin with. Often, if other players read you on a flush or full house, they won't bet, and you'll lose money in the process.

For more good tips, go to this page. It is a good page of tips by a noted poker player/author. He has a good section on psychology. One great tip: If a player is nervous and trembling when he bets, he has a monster hand.

Tom Clancy is not Anti-semitic

David Mamet in a recent article alleges that Tom Clancy is antisemitic. He uses two Clancy novels to make this assertion. He states that in Sum of all Fears:

As per Mr. Clancy, in this otherwise ripping yarn, the world is going to end because these lazy or distracted Mockies have committed a blunder no civilized folk would make.

The stretch he makes is amazing. In that book, the opening scene takes place during the '73 Arab Israeli war, and because the Syrians are about to break through the defenses on the Golan Heights, Israeli High command issues an order to arm some aircraft with nukes. In the confusion of the battle, an Israeli pilot unknowingly takes off with one of the nuclear armed planes, and the plane is shot down, with the bomb burying itself in a field, to be found 20 years later. To say it is because "these lazy or distracted Mockies have committed a blunder no civilized folk would make," is a deliberate misinterpretation of the novel.

Later on, he tries to draw the same conclusion on a later novel, The Bear and the Dragon:

A subplot deals with the Chinese custom (reported by Clancy) of female infanticide. An American operative falls in love with a Chinese young woman and is informed of this crime and is, rightfully, horrified, as is Clancy. How can these little children be murdered? He writes, "If it were the Jews, the world would be Up in Arms." What can he mean? As the world was in 1941, when they rushed to the defense of 6 million innocents? Or as the world is today, in its staunch support of Israel's right to existence, and in opposition to the murder of its children? What can Clancy mean?

I've read Sum, but not the latter novel. However, I've read every Clancy novel up to and including Rainbow Six, and I think I know pretty much what he was talking about. As a result of Communism, millions have died. Depending on the source, while Nazism is responsible for the deaths of between 25 and 40 million people, Communists have murdered between 80 and 100 million(60 million+ in China alone). Yet noone is as revulsed by the symbolism of the hammer and sickle as they are towards the swastika, even though communism has murdered many more people, and continues to do so today. The world recoiled in revulsion at the Holocaust, but has not in the case of equally vile crimes against humanity committed by the Communists. Anyone remotely familiar with Tom Clancy and his worldview would understand what he meant in a microsecond. Mamet chose not to, and slandered a good man.

Link via Andrea Harris

People's most Intriguing people

People has released their list of the 25 most intriguing people of 2002. The magazine should be a bit more honest about it, and call it the list of "The 25 People We Think Have The Nicest Butt, With a Couple of Politicians Thrown In So We Can Pretend to be a Serious Magazine."

Army and Marines training, part II

My post comparing basic training of the Army vs. the Marines has generated quite a lot of interest. There were a number of interesting points. One theme that ran through most of the responses is that I am not taking into account the quality of the Army Special Forces and Rangers, and that I shouldn't be saying which branch is "better" because that is being unsupportive of the military, etc.

As to it being unpatriotic to criticize the goings-on in the military--poppycock. First of all, civilian control of the military is the bedrock of our republic. Without it, we'd wind up with our own Noriegas, Somozas, and Qhaddafys, and my critique of the military is part of that tradition of civilian control. Second, because the military is under civilian control, it is the duty of each and every citizen to ensure that our military is the most effective it can possibly be, and receives the best tools and most effective training that can be procured. It is our military's job to kill people and break things, and it is our responsibility as citizens to make certain that they are the best at it, and that the military is not used to engage in touchy-feely experiments in PC.

This quote from one of those who replied(a Marine Lieutenant who came up from the enlisted ranks) sums up what I consider to be half the problem with Army Basic:

Overall, a basically trained Marine is more disciplined, and probably performs better under stress, and with his rifle than a basically trained soldier. The Marines try to keep all members combat ready (i.e. the supply guy, the cook, the admin guy, all get rotated for combat training annually) whereas the Army does not...admin guys are admin guys.

That is not a minor issue. Just because a newly minted private is assigned to the motor pool instead of an infantry platoon does not mean that he will never be called on to use a rifle. Cooks and bottlewashers have had to hold the line in WWII, Korea, and Vietnam. We have been lucky that we have not had to press into service the clerks and mechanics since then. If a second Korean war occurs, we may need to do just that,

There is also a second problem. That problem is how much time is lost in more advanced, specialized training to make up for the incompleteness of Army basic? That is something which I don't have an answer for.

Reason to be thankful

The Washington Times has published a list of all deaths since the beginning of the war. We should be thankful that the list is so small that it can be kept in one story.

Want the hottest gift this Christmas

for your daughter(or teenage boy)? Then get them the newest, hottest thing from Mattel, High-Priced Hooker Barbie:

Time's Goof of the Year

Time has come out with their Person of the Year issue, and to put it bluntly, they blew it. First of all, in the case of Sherron Watkins, she didn't blow the whistle on Enron in 2002, but in 2001, making her ineligible. Second, and more important, it is patently obvious that the newsmaker of the year is George W. Bush by a country mile. He changed the policy of the US towards Iraq, he put the Dems on the defensive in Congress, and he has enough legislative, diplomatic, and military clout that in most issues, the only limitations to his policy objectives are those he puts on himself. No President has had his clout since FDR during WWII. Yet Time saw fit to give the award to these three people whose stories in the past year(except for the FBI story) were really only of minor import. So for Time's stunningly relaxed grip on reality, I give them the No Replacement For Displacement award for most Ideologically Myopic magazine of the year.

OK, this is really old

But since I haven't been blogging in quite a while, it just needs to be said. Someone should really arrange a date between the S&M inspector and Robert Fisk. One likes being beaten, the other likes to beat. Should be a match made in heaven.

Laura Schlessinger Hypocrisy Alert

According to Drudge, Laura Schlessinger's mom was found dead today. What was noteworthy was that she had been dead for several months before a neighbor noticed that she was dead. Normally this would not be something I would really comment on, except to say a prayer or somesuch. However, ponder the following: The same Dr. Laura(who is not a medical or psychological professional) who brutalizes callers who have problems like teen pregnancy, estranged parents/children, etc, herself was unwilling/unable to talk to her own mother, to the point of not knowing if she was alive or dead. The same Dr. Laura who demands morality herself had nude pictures taken of herself by her lover(who was 29 years older than her at the time).

These things in themselves wouldn't be so damning if it weren't for her attitude towards the people who call her with real problems. If you are fifteen and pregnant, now is not the time to be told that you shouldn't have slept around like a cheap tramp. If you are a woman being forced to return to workplace to stave off bankruptcy, being told you are abandoning your children is not going to help. What Dr. Laura does, and what I hate about what she does, is that she takes away hope. When someone calls her show, they are often hurting. She then goes and twists the blade. That is why I'm no fan.

Scary thought of the day

If Al Gore was President, some poor sailor would be sailing on the USS Bill Clinton.

Reason to vote Republican number 1026

Senator Patty Murray D(Washington):

"We've got to ask, why is this man [Osama bin Laden] so popular around the world?

...

He's been out in these countries for decades, building schools, building roads, building infrastructure, building day care facilities, building health care facilities, and the people are extremely grateful. We haven't done that.

How would they look at us today if we had been there helping them with some of that rather than just being the people who are going to bomb in Iraq and go to Afghanistan?

Remember this when someone talks about Trent Lott's gaffe. You expect to hear these sort of quotes out of Robert Fisk or some Hollywood bubblehead, not out of a US Senator.

Lott's out

I think this will be good for the conservative movement. Now the Dems won't be able to play the race card much at all. Now if they talk racism, we can talk about Klansman Pro Tempore Robert Byrd. This episode hurt, but it dramatically highlighted the difference between the Republican party over the Democrats. We cleaned our own house, the Dems didn't, and haven't.

I'm back

OK, I've been bad, I haven't posted in over three weeks, and everytime something else hit the news, I would say to myself, "Gee, there is something else I have to write about, and I started to despair as my "catch up with what's going on now" post was starting to reach den Bestian proportions, and from there, it was getting up into the realm of Dickens and Tolstoy. So, for all those of you who wondered what happened,mea maxima culpa. Since I'm also lazy, I'll give a bunch of quick points about what's been going on(since you've probably been reading other blogs, this is probably all old hat:

1. Trent Lott: Well, now we Republicans have our own Clinton. First he makes a veiled racist remark, then he shows he has no concept why what he said was a bad thing, then he does the apology du jour route, then he abandons every single Republican principle so he can hold onto his Senate seat. A large part of the conservative movement wants him gone, but a few want him to stay, saying that Democrats let Bob Byrd off for being a Klansman and saying far worse. There is only response to that: Just because the Democrat Party is filled with a bunch of hypocrites does not mean that we in the Republican Party should follow suit. He's gotta go, the sooner, the better.


2. Donahue Show: No, he's not dead yet. I don't even think he'll be gone in January. Donahue is right now at the Pythonesque "I'm not dead! I feel happy!" stage. If MSNBC thinks replacing him with Jesse Ventura is a good idea, they should just put up a test pattern from 8pm to 9pm EST. The XFL fiasco should tell MSNBC what a ratings draw Ventura is.


3. Iraq's document dump: After dropping that 12,000 page monstrosity on the UN's lamp, it looks like Iraq is getting advice from Clinton's Whitewater defense team.


4. North Korea and Iranian nukes: What a shock, they're evil. 'Nuff said.


5. What would Jesus Drive: With 12 apostles to carry around, that's easy--an E150 passenger van. What wouldn't he drive? That's easy too. The Hummer H2, AKA the Tahoe Hit With an Ugly Stick.

OK, I think that pretty much covers it. Now back to regularly scheduled blogging.