The White House is considering raising the fuel economy limits on SUVs again. This is yet another case of bad, and counterproductive law. First of all, in the short run, it will make SUVs less safe. Higher gas mileage means lighter weight, smaller engines, and less sheet metal. Less sheet metal means weaker crumple zones, and weaker rollover protection. Smaller engines mean less towing capacity, less reliability(small engines work harder than big ones), and less performance. That is the bad part.
Now here is the counterproductive part. This law may make SUVs bigger. This sounds really counterintuitive, but it isn't, especially if you look at past history. Up until the CAFE act was passed, Americans typically bought large cars, with relatively large engines, though not as big as people have been led to believe.(as I have stated previously).
Initially, the CAFE act did get people into smaller cars. Chrysler came out with the minivan to replace their station wagons. Then something unexpected happened. Customers started looking at trucks like the Ford Bronco, Chevy Blazer, and the Jeep Cherokee, and optioned the heck out of them, turning them into an upsized station wagon. The minivan didn't quite cut it as a station wagon. It was underpowered, lacking the performance of a station wagon. A Bronco, on the other hand, *had* power. You could get a V-8. It had excellent towing capacity, and gobs of cargo space. Not only that, but it had four wheel drive! This wasn't just a replacement for the trusty Country Squire, it was a Country Squire on steroids! The automakers started to notice this trend, and the result was the Ford Explorer.
The Explorer was comfortable inside, just like a station wagon. It had better cargo capacity than a station wagon. It had four wheel drive. It had a big motor, and unlike a minivan, it had good performance. It also weighed as much as a Country Squire wagon. It also got worse mileage than a Country Squire wagon(17 city/24 highway v. 16/20 in the Explorer). But the Explorer wasn't subject to CAFE, and Ford could produce these things by the thousands, without having to worry about trying to pawn off deathtraps like the Festiva in order to compensate for the relatively poor mileage of the Country Squire. Customers didn't have to lose their Country Squire to the ecoweenies. Now they could get something bigger!
Fast forward to today. The federal government is now going to increase the mileage required for light trucks. Here is what is going to happen. Customers are going to see the "new improved" downsized SUVs. They are going to notice that the "new improved" SUVs carry less cargo, have smaller crumple zones, and don't perform as well on the highway. Then they are going to look for a substitute. And that means that the substitute they want will be BIGGER than what they currently drive. It will be bigger, because the subsitute won't be an SUV, and it won't be a light truck at all. It will be an F-350 with dual rear wheels. Then the automakers will build a replacement. It will be larger, it will have a bigger engine. It may even have three axles. The Big 2.5 will gussy them up with leather seats, a nice radio, and give the trucks an air ride(like the crown vic) so passengers aren't jostled around like they would be with an ordinary truck. Soccer moms will drive to work in one of these:

Update: I received an e-mail from an Australian who agrees:
I've discovered your 'blog from the Euroweenie quiz and it's a bit of surprise how dumb those CAFE laws have been written. We (Australia) don't have such laws, although the fact that half the price of petrol is tax is irksome, which has led us to nice, roomy, powerful, rear wheel drive, larger cars such as the Falcon from Ford and the Commodore from Holden (GM). The 2-door Commodore, which is the Monaro here, will soon be the Camero (?) replacement in the US.
I absolutely HATE trucks and would never drive one, but trying to take two dogs, their crates, and maybe some luggage is a real challenge for a Grand Prix. I do look longingly at the space available in a Explorer. I would love to have something like the old Vista Cruiser. I might buy a Marauder if they can get better performance from it.
The Holden Monaro V8 actually uses a US engine, the same as in the Camaro/Firebird, so we still have powerful engines; they just don't put them in the right cars.
The Holden looks to be a nice car, but it's sort of sad that Pontiac would have to go offshore for its new GTO. That used to be what we did the best. I dunno. If it's not TOO small, I might get one. I can surely never afford one of the originals. I always wanted one since age 7, but by the time I was 18, the supercar era was 10 years gone.
Posted by: Gary Renaud on November 22, 2002 12:01 AMThe Marauder suffers from two big problems. First of all, the 3.55 rear end and the low torque 4.6 cripple its off the line performance. Second, the 4.6 needs about 3000 miles of break-in before the engine can put out its full HP numbers.
The biggest problem, though, is that Ford advertised it as a stoplight rocket, and it isn't. On the highway, when the DOHC motor can rev, it *is* fast, but doesn't have the kick in the butt feeling of a big block.
Posted by: John Bono on November 25, 2002 10:13 PM