No Replacement For Displacement

Suman Palit talks about India/Pakistan relations(or lack thereof) and how long term we should be backing the Indians. He has a good point about that, though he is wrong about how American relations with Pakistan are simply a rehash of Cold War relations. During the Cold War Pakistan was for the United States the Asian equivalent to the "bastions of democracy" that littered Latin America during the 70's. Sure, they were SOBs, but they were our SOBs. They gave us bases where we could spy on the Russians, they let us use their territory for arming the Afghan Mujahedin, and were a hedge against India, who at that time had taken a significantly pro-Soviet tilt after the British left.

After the Cold War ended, however, Pakistan's utility as an ally ceased. We weren't sending anything to Afghanistan anymore, the serious conflict between Russian and American interests waned, and India was no longer going to be an outpost for the Red Banner Fleet. India's relations with the United States warmed significantly, and the United States was no longer willing to be the protector for a nuclear armed Pakistan.

Now fast forward to post 9/11 and look at relations with US-Pakistan relations today. The only reason Pakistan is not a smoking hole today is because Musharraf realized that if he did not align foursquare with the United States in attacking Afghanistan, he would wind up being attacked alongside Afghanistan. We did not give him the option of neutrality. India actually offered the use of their bases first, and we probably would have used them, but the cold hard reality is that the geography favored Pakistan for us. Sadly, we need to use Pakistan territory to keep our army properly supplied, and that will not change so long as Iran is completely hostile to the United States. The closest Indian base is still quite a bit farther from Afghanistan than the most remote Pakistani base, and that extra distance translates into more accidents, greater usage of fuel, and pilot fatigue. Also, even if Pakistan gave overflight rights in that situation, US aircraft will still be flying across a border that is functionally at war, and having American choppers get lit up by air search radars before it even crosses into enemy territory is a bad thing.

Now the big question is if this is a permanent condition or not? That depends quite a bit on what happens in Iraq. Iraq is the first domino in the ME. When the United States topples Iraq, it will give the United States enormous strategic leverage over every other state in the region. Iraq also can act as a true bastion of democracy in the Middle East. This has strong implications on its next door neighbor, Iran. Iran is a (cliche alert)powder keg waiting to blow, and the example of a free Iraq may be the match to set it off. Eventually, there will be a revolution in Iran, and the Ayatollahs will be overthrown. If that happens, there is a quite high probability that the future Iranian government will be pro-American, and democratic as well.

What is the importance of an Iranian revolution to India? The importance is that a pro-American Iranian regime means that a second country could open up a land route to Afghanistan. That obviates Pakistan's utility to the United States, and while we won't toss Pakistan overboard the way we will with Saudi Arabia(soon to be New Texas), we won't have to rely on Pakistan to supply American troops in Afghanistan. If Iran falls, then eventually Musharraf will go the way of Marcos, and a "helpful" United States will give him a nice comfortable place to spend the rest of his days in West Palm Beach.

The biggest problem today is that there isn't a single representative government from the Jordan to the Ganges rivers. When we take out Iraq, there will be a chance for there to be nothing but democracies from the Jordan to the Ganges. And if that occurs, the world will be a far better place.

Update:One thing that may also play into the mix is the role of China. The United States is going to need another country to be a foil to the Chinese, who are quite likely to be our enemies in the future. That means that we will need to go to India and Russia eventually to fill that role.