No Replacement For Displacement

Baghdad by Christmas

Most of the Blogosphere and the mainstream media, possibly with the exception of Cato, think that war will be coming in January. They are all wrong(except for Cato). When we go to war, it will be in November, before Thanksgiving, and after the elections. Everything points to this.

First of all, there is the Congressional vote. That vote will be completed by at latest, the end of next week. In the Gulf War, the congressional authorization only occurred 5 days before the air war started.

Secondly, the build up in the countries around Iraq has been increasing slowly but surely for the past year. The base in Qatar is complete. The RoRos that are used to carry heavy armor first were announced in the news about a month ago, which means they have been able to sail for 30 days, at 400 nm per day, using a speed of about 18 knots give or take. That means the ships have been able to cover 12000 miles in that time frame. If those ships had to sail from Tokyo to LA, that is only a distance of 5000 nm(or about 13 days or so, no more than 18 days). If they came from Europe, the distance is less, and Ro Ros are designed to be loaded and unloaded quickly, in no more than a few days(and in that case I'm probably being generous) Also, there is at least a brigade of prepositioned equipment at Diego Garcia that is no more than two weeks away from Kuwait City, more likely 10 days, because military Ro-Ros are faster than civilian ones(for obvious reasons).

Finally, there is the UN Appeasement Council. There is a reason why the Administration wants a very short deadline for inspections in Iraq. They would not want a seven day deadline for inspections unless they wanted to go soon. Bush is using the Congressional resolution as a bludgeon on the UN to get them to act immediately. The only reason why he would do that is if he did not feel he had the luxury of time. That can only mean one thing. We are a lot closer to war than people realize. Don't be surprised if sometime after the election, the six o'clock news is interrupted with a newsflash that warplanes are over Baghdad. It might even be the day after Thanksgiving. So if your bowl games get interrupted, blame Saddam Hussein.